Every analysis published by the desk — geopolitics and markets read as one instrument. Grouped by theme, newest first within each.
The war, its economics, and who is financing it
Defense spending hasn't been this large a share of the economy since the Cold War. Growth has nearly stalled. And the gap between official inflation and what households actually feel is widening.
Read more →A sanctioned tanker has been wrecked off the German coast for over a year. It's a fitting image for a price cap meant to starve the Kremlin's war chest — and the shadow fleet that grew to defeat it.
Read more →Four years in, the front has barely moved and the casualties are approaching two million. To understand why Kyiv keeps fighting anyway, you have to go back past the referendum, past the broken promise, to a vote in December 1991.
Read more →The 2022 energy shock was supposed to be old news by now. It isn't — and a second, unrelated shock has landed on top of it. Where the money actually went, on both sides of the war.
Read more →Hormuz, the oil complex, and the wider Middle East
Transits fell to three a day and war-risk cover went from 0.125% of hull value to 5%. A framework for pricing chokepoint risk — and why "Iran will close Hormuz" has been a losing forecast all year.
Read more →Tehran fired a volley of ballistic missiles at US forces in the Gulf hours after traders had started pricing the war out — every missile intercepted, but the risk premium snapped straight back.
Read more →Operation Epic Fury killed Iran's Supreme Leader within hours of launching and sent oil above $119 a barrel within a week. Five months on, the ceasefire it produced is still fraying.
Read more →Equities, metals, semiconductors and tariff policy
SK Hynix posted record profit and had its worst month since 2008. Micron grew revenue 345.7% and trades at 6x forward earnings. The bull and bear cases, and why this one is genuinely unresolved.
Read more →Gold hit $5,589 in January and gave most of it back by June; silver round-tripped from $121 to $58. Why war and rate cuts moved metals — and why silver moves twice as hard.
Read more →Chip stocks shed over $1tn this month — yet Samsung's profit rose more than 1,800% and the stock still fell 7%. The market has stopped trading earnings and started trading the multiple.
Read more →The average tariff rate went from 2.4% to 16.8% in a year, revenue jumped 192%, and the Supreme Court just ruled a chunk of it illegal — what the numbers actually say, past the political framing.
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